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The AI Gold Rush and the Market's New King
Forget Bitcoin for a second. The real action, the thing sucking all the air out of the room, is artificial intelligence. We're talking about spending on AI that's on track to hit roughly $700 billion this year alone. Think about that: companies are pouring money into AI like it's the new gold rush, and it's reshaping the entire market. This AI surge is why major indexes like the S&P 500 have been climbing, clearing 7,600 for the first time in early June, with AI-focused companies leading the charge.
So what does that actually mean for other assets, like Bitcoin? Well, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, says Bitcoin has been lagging because all the investor attention, and more importantly, the capital, has been absorbed by AI. It's like when a hot new stock IPO drops – suddenly, everyone's talking about it, and money moves away from everything else. Right now, AI is that hot IPO, drawing cash that might have otherwise gone into Bitcoin or even gold.
Jordi Visser, another observer, notes that AI companies are spending close to 100% more this year on crucial things like chips and data centers. He figures that if this AI stock momentum even hiccups, while the rest of the market just sits there, that's actually a better environment for Bitcoin to make a move than if AI keeps compounding gains quarter after quarter. For now, though, the AI party is keeping crypto on the sidelines.
Bitcoin's Stumble: What's Holding It Back?
Real talk: Bitcoin is stuck in the mud right now. Analyst Jordi Visser says it’s still a bear market until the big coin can break and hold above its 200-day moving average, a line it keeps tripping over. He’s blunt: Bitcoin has “no energy” left at the moment.
So what’s stealing Bitcoin’s thunder? Money. Specifically, money pouring into assets tied to earnings, like AI stocks, makes it tough for Bitcoin to climb. Think of it like trying to get your buddies to invest in your new lemonade stand when they’re all chasing the latest hot IPO that’s already doubled. The cash is just going elsewhere.
Even the big institutional players are pulling back. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $6.4 billion walk out the door since May 7, with only two days of positive inflows. Add to that souring sentiment around companies that hold a lot of Bitcoin, like Michael Saylor’s MSTR, whose preferred shares have hit historic lows, and you’ve got a recipe for a sideways market.
When will crypto get its groove back? Visser thinks it’s tied to the AI trade finally taking a breather. If the stock market goes flat into September, that could push retail money back into crypto, especially since August and September are historically weaker months for Bitcoin anyway.
SpaceX: The Unlikely Contender?
Veteran macro investor Jordi Visser sees a surprising parallel between SpaceX and Bitcoin. He argues they are fundamentally similar because both are built on belief in the future rather than current tangible value. Visser notes that it's difficult to establish a traditional valuation for either, making them impossible to overvalue or undervalue – they are essentially a complete guess.
This comparison gains traction given SpaceX's own significant Bitcoin holdings. The company's balance sheet reveals it owns 18,712 BTC, making its treasury the eighth-largest among publicly listed firms. When Elon Musk's SpaceX filed for its initial public offering (IPO) in May, investors anticipated a blockbuster event. However, the stock was trading at $167.85 at press time, marking a 9% decrease in a single day.
The Looming Shadow of Debt and the Fed
The U.S. is carrying a mountain of debt, with public debt hitting around $31.6 trillion as of June 3. That's a staggering number, and the interest payments on it are now costing more per year than the entire defense budget. The Government Accountability Office is sounding the alarm, warning that this debt is set to grow faster than the economy for decades to come.
Real talk: when the government borrows this much, especially with rising interest rates, it starts to get expensive. Think of it like your credit card bill. If you only make minimum payments and interest rates go up, your debt balloons, and more of your money goes just to paying off that interest. The U.S. is in a similar, much larger-scale bind.
This situation could eventually become a major driver for Bitcoin. Some big players are watching this closely. BlackRock, for instance, believes that growing concerns over U.S. debt and deficits could give Bitcoin a boost, especially as we head toward the 2026 midterm elections. The fear around government borrowing and the potential for money printing is seen as a fundamental driver for demand, much like gold. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan is more focused on an AI-driven stock market rally, calling the current market a "little tsunami" that's hard to stop.
Conflicting Forecasts: AI Rally vs. Fiscal Fear
While the AI boom has fueled a rally, not everyone's buying the continued ascent. Some analysts, like Jordi Visser, project around 22% earnings growth, but caution that the market might not actually deliver on these high expectations. Visser specifically anticipates that Q2 earnings could disappoint more than Q1 because expectations have climbed too high. He advises investors to remember that the market itself is the ultimate arbiter: "Never believe you're smarter than the market. Ever. The market knows".
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,000, a modest 1.3% increase over the last 24 hours. This price point, however, is still about 49% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025. The market is caught between the excitement of new technologies and the persistent concerns about debt and fiscal policy, leaving the path forward uncertain.
References
- BlackRock, JPMorgan Split on Bitcoin vs. AI as Next Capital Magnet
- Bitcoin or AI? BlackRock and JPMorgan Split Over Where Capital Flows Next
- BlackRock flags new driver for gold's biggest rival
- Bitcoin Cannot Rally While AI Stocks Are Winning, Veteran Investor Cautions
- Veteran investor reveals shocking similarity between Bitcoin and SpaceX